Return to North Glen or Reading List or Credo
A critique By
Ed Iglehart of the document
CLIMATE
CHANGE: SCOTTISH IMPLICATIONS SCOPING STUDY
(1999)
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/1999/12/4b563aa5-4257-4fb5-9abb-db10de1e35cc (summary)
By
Andrew
Kerr, University of Edinburgh, Simon Shackley, UMIST
Ronnie Milne,
Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Simon Allen, University of
Edinburgh
(£10/print copy; 75 pages http://www.thestationeryoffice.co.uk/
)
Background:
This
Study was commissioned By the Scottish Office Central Research Unit
to gain a clearer understanding of the implications of climate change
in Scotland and to inform the development of a Scottish strategy to
combat the impacts of climate change and introduce measures to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. The method is clearly described as
identifying stakeholders, reviewing existing information,
interviewing experts and synthesising the expert knowledge into: "an
analysis of the Scottish implications of climate change, together
with an assessment of the implications for future work."
Critical
summary:
The executive summary and
chapters 1&2 are worthwhile for a general assessment of Scottish
outlooks. The alarming expectation that, while all other sectors are
expected to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) output, transport is expected
to increase (note
1) does not elicit any comment from the authors. There is useful
discussion of the levels of certainty for the projections of the UK
Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) (note
2).
The remaining chapters contain little new and even
less of particular substance or coherence. There is the usual urban
bias associated with documents generated from the centre. Incentives
(subsidies) are preferred over penalties (acceptance of cost). The
Authors' main conclusions that more work is needed are unsurprising.
That comprehension of the situation is at a very primitive stage is
well demonstrated by the incoherence of the latter half.
The
issues identified are potential direct impacts of climate changes
within Scotland, the uncertain character of the changes, and of
possible political & economic disruption due to climate change
elsewhere. Indirect impacts include social, economic and political
effects of measures taken to mitigate climate change, chiefly the
need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHG).
This
clear recognition of the reality of climate change is encouraging at
first sight. That increased flooding and storms will affect
infrastructure for power generation & distribution, road, rail
and water transport needs to be taken on board by planners. Water
distribution for domestic and industrial use and waste water
treatment & disposal are likely to be impacted. It is noted that
in the public sector the existing financial structure militates
against proactive approaches.
Housing stock and domestic
appliances will need improving to increase energy efficiency, and
reduce emissions. The transport sector is the only sector not
expected to contribute to an overall reduction in GHG emissions. "Not
surprisingly, road haulage firms are against further rises in fuel
price and point to the danger of the relocation of firms to
continental Europe." The business sector appears most worried by
energy taxes and the coming climate change levy, "Of far greater
concern to the expert respondents is the impact of measures to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions,..."
This shocking acceptance
of the continued growth in the practice of moving people and goods
great distances is a refusal to realise the central causative nature
of this practice in the problem, and betrays the attitude that it is
easier to trust in our ability to deal with the results than to
consider changing the practices underlying them, especially where
that might involve costs to trade. Government grants enabled
"Safeway’s recent decision to move supermarket goods intended
for the Highlands market by train from Glasgow to Inverness. It is
reported that this project alone will save 10,000 lorry journeys each
year."
"It is well understood that nothing so
excites the glands of a free-market capitalist as the offer of a
government subsidy." --Wendell
Berry
Although "The management of Scotland’s natural
environment resources is perhaps the sector most affected by climate
impacts..," the paper has little of real substance regarding
farming, forestry & fishing, much of the verbiage being
reminiscent of tabloid horoscope pages. (note
3)
Priorities identified for future work are the "clear
need for higher resolution climate data and impact studies in
Scotland." and, "exploring the linkages between the main
driving forces on each sector, the likely impacts of emissions
strategies, and climate impacts." The need for better
understanding is unquestionable, and the need to seek strategies
which cut across the whole of policy is rightly identified. The
respondents' implicit preference for reactive strategies over
proactive is disappointing. It is clearly written
indoors.
Notes:
(Further
development of these questions may be found at 946words.html
and notes)
(1) Table
summarised from Introductory chapter.
Greenhouse Gas emissions %
change expected as result of policy action 1990-2010
Energy Sector
-18%
Business -14%
Transport +8% (implies
an underlying acceptance of continued growth of transport!)
Public
Sector -10%
Agriculture, forestry and land use -15%
TOTAL
CHANGE -10% of which CO2 -3%
(2) Table
summarised from Chapter 2
Temperature (deg C) and precipitation
(%) changes expected under 4 UKCIP scenarios:
Scenario
2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
Low
+0.4
+3% +0.7
+3% +0.9 +3%
Medium-low
+0.8
+4% +1.2
+5% +1.5 +6%
Medium-high
+1.1
+6% +1.6
+5% +2.3 +16%
High
+1.2
+7% +1.9
+6% +2.6 +17% (That's
pretty wet!)
(3) A
horoscopic view:
"The management of Scotland’s natural
environment resources is perhaps the sector most affected by climate
impacts..." (News indeed!) "However, a longer growing
season could lead to more diverse and valuable crops....The effect of
climate extremes on agricultural production has yet to be fully
understood...Key sensitivities included temperature and precipitation
effects on crop growth, disease, forage quality, and the working
practices of farmers."
(the
practitioners of a "High and difficult art" (Wendell
Berry))
On an optimistic note, "Urban authorities noted
that the shift towards a ‘café culture’, was aided by warmer
(albeit drier) weather. This spread in shared public space, through
leisure activities such as eating and drinking, has positive
ramifications for sustaining city centres." And, "Slightly
higher precipitation without extreme variability, as suggested in the
climate scenarios, will continue to ensure a plentiful supply of high
quality water to Scotland. In addition, higher precipitation will
also ensure the dilution of effluents through higher river
flows....One long-term option for adapting to climate change with
increased precipitation is to export water to England,..."
and, as the Seekers stare deeper into the cloudy
crystal,
"5.21 Expanding forest areas and allowing
agricultural land to revert to a more natural state causes carbon
stocks to increase. Conversely, cultivating moorland will increase
carbon dioxide emission. Recent increased use of land for forestry,
agriculture and unmanaged and uncultivated urban development has been
causing soil carbon to fall. However, agriculture changes, in the
form of set aside policies and the shift away from intensive
practices, is reversing this trend. Agriculture is likely to continue
to be driven by a range of agri-environment and farming support
policies. At present land use change and forestry is a net source of
carbon in the UK, but is likely to become a net sink in the near
future. Both forest expansion and change in agricultural practice are
relatively more important in Scotland than the rest of the UK; under
a devolved administration, any targets for greenhouse gas emissions
will need to consider these processes."
Critique: Ed
Iglehart 08/02/2000
Return to North Glen or Reading List or Credo